Novel Coronavirus
It’s been almost a month since my last post. Life has a funny way of playing the “Hurry Up, Slow Down” game and as I’m writing this, I’m looking at a list a mile long of fun and exciting material to write about and catch up on. Unfortunately, circumstances and fears of the Novel Coronavirus are hitting too close to home. To be frank though, I personally can’t wait to read this 6-12 months from now and see what my thoughts were and what actually transpired in the months to come.
I am in no way an expert on the matter but due to the nature of my work and personal habits, I’ve absorbed as much information as I can about the issue. So let me tell you what I know.
In late December 2019, there was an outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China. By early January, reports of the outbreak were beginning to become worrisome. I work in analytics and finance. I bring this up because at the time, my mind wasn’t so focused or even concerned about the spread of the virus outside of china. Wuhan is a sprawling metropolis in the heart of mainland China. Wuhan is also considered the manufacturing hub of China. Everything from auto parts to, ironically, medical supplies are made and shipped around the world from Wuhan. This peaked my curiosity of what this would do to the world markets.
Moving through January, however, it became very clear that this was a very serious problem. Reports out of China were showing conditions quickly deteriorating. Thousands of Chinese civilians were losing their lives and the streets of Wuhan left completely barren as China began to lock down the city.
February came around and for whatever reason, I was still reading about this daily, following updates with intrigue. I was bothering my wife, Katie, daily with updates and, of course, the occasional conspiracy theory. With it so far from home, it was still nothing more than a fascination. Even with the inevitable spread working its way closer and closer to the United States, the gravity of what was to come never seemed to take hold.
That was, until March. In March, the coronavirus finally made it to the United States. Everything I had been reading out of China, Italy, and around the world had finally made it to our backyard. When you live in the greatest, safest, and the most prosperous country in the world, you get a false sense of security.
Where we sit today, March 14th, President Trump has issued a state of emergency. Flights incoming from around the world have ceased. Our Governor Roy Cooper has just announced that NC schools have been suspended for the foreseeable future and Katie and I have been debating all day if it’s even enough. The coronavirus has a 2 week incubation period and there are almost no test kits, meaning at any given time we are, at least, 2 weeks behind the spread of the virus.
Basic math adds up to very real fears. In 2009, H1N1 had a mortality rate of roughly .02% and claimed the lives of more than 10,000 Americans. To date, conservative estimates put the mortality rate of Coronavirus at ~5%. That spread is to the magnitude of 250 times that of H1N1. If the infection rate is equal to that of H1N1 it is reasonable to conclude that 2.5 million Americans could be at risk of losing their lives. Hopefully I am wrong. Hopefully we are all wrong, and 6 months from now we will look back and say “wow we over reacted.” Over reaction saves lives, though.
Now so far, there is not a lot of data to show how this would affect the Muscular Dystrophy community. The virus seems to be most severe in the elderly and those who are immuno compromised (weakened immune systems). Not to say we are out of the woods. My body, for example, has to exert a far greater amount of energy and effort than that of a normal person my age even to just walk around or take out the trash. The energy it takes to recover from a servere respiratory infection is not for the faint of heart. My recovery time could be more than double.
In the coming days I’ll keep you updated but my pregnant wife is telling me its time to go to bed. Yeah… Surprise! That is on that mile long list of material to post I mentioned earlier. Goodnight everyone, be safe, and remember to wash those hands!
John
